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Greater Expectations
July 1, 2008 | 10 Comments
The bad news is piling up and making many feel that the way out isn’t in sight. I saw a poll earlier today that reported on folk’s feelings of hopelessness and wish now I’d kept the link, as it’s bugged me all day. Hard numbers will do to support the sensation; in 1970 3/4ths of world oil use was in the developed economies and now its only 57%. This makes saving and economizing much less effective now in the face of many of the new economies subsidizing oil products to rev up their economies with an effort to just increase use as developed economies cut back.
That makes the first expectation – buy some time. To do that one will need to cut use, especially in liquid fuels like diesel and gasoline and get on with substitutes as soon as possible. There are few actionable moves now, one can trade in the car for something that gets better efficiency, but the goal is to minimize the oil monster in life. Here there are real encouraging signs. The trade in value of the gas-guzzler has fallen and should fall further. Those that grasp the issue and can, move to be closer to work. Telecommuting and four day work weeks are getting news if not much adoption yet. Shipping by rail is getting more attention. The stress in trucking, airlines, suburban school districts and law enforcement departments is obvious, as they must have large volumes of diesel, gasoline and jet fuel to function. So to get the time, we need to cut our liquid fuel use by half to get to just last years gallon per mile rate per dollar.
The second expectation is that we’ll not easily let go of our personal transportation. To pull that off we will need efficiency. The two leading drags on efficiency are weight and air resistance. Pulling or pushing a mass that displaces air can be optimized a great deal and save huge amounts of fuel. We need to expect the auto manufacturers to build with optimal materials – which means letting go of the stamped steel auto and truck bodies. Engineering and manufacturing planning could get to robotic layout of carbon fiber cutting a great deal of weight. In my expectation the sleekest car will have the lowest air resistance, as pushing hard through the air isn’t efficient and I like the idea of my car looking like a true racing car, a chopped airplane or something even cooler.
The third expectation is letting go of the internal combustion engine. Simply put, the system is never going to get to efficiencies that make any sense. Diesels and gas engines hover about a 20% rate, which is a disaster for people who need to cover miles. Getting less than a dollars worth of work from a $4 gallon of gas is more than I can tolerate for long. The alternative is electric drive units that can be close to 90% efficient. Feeding that kind beast not only costs lots less, they offer a pittance of the costs to maintain and care for. The energy can be off grid, a fuel cell, an (ugh) optimized internal combustion engine driven generator – each or any could store fuel in batteries or super capacitors or simply recharge as one goes along.
The fourth expectation is that the U.S. national and world leadership catch on. OK, McCain is close mentioning conservation, but there isn’t any optimism in that. Get it, John, the word is efficiency. As for Obama, this whole thing is going to need leadership, business and investment and risk assumption, a consumer base ready for a future. That’s a combination of allies alien to the Obama crowd. If McCain doesn’t get it and win . . .
A miserable expectation could set in. With all the resources blessing the U.S.A., hopelessness is a condition of mind and all the choices, the transactions of research, development, investment, and consumption might be delayed until leadership and vision reassert themselves again.
The fifth expectation is from an optimist. There are abundant renewable sources of carbon and hydrogen to power transport. The technology for methanol, ethanol and algae are here or coming fast. Wind, solar and other renewable electrical generation, fission improvements and other fuels like thorium with real prospects for fusion and even perhaps hydrogen to hydrino power will come offering lots of power on the grid. The U.S. Army is fielding fuel cells as we write and read, battery developments come several times per month, super capacitors need solve the issue of making their electrolyte potions in commercial volumes. We are so close!
The sixth expectation is we’ll make it to a far better life on the other side of energy and fuel revolution. The question for today is what are we doing to get there and keep the quality of life high along the way. It’s not a time to be going wobbly or hopeless.
Thanks for reading!
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Dongtan will be all but self- sufficient, powered by wind, wood and sun. Its cars will be electric or hydrogen- fuelled, and its buildings will be mini power stations. There will be no landfill sites and 80% of waste will be recycled….
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